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Great Recession to Today: Are We Really that Different?


[Updated: Dec 11, 2020 ] Mar 27, 2020 by Liz Brumer

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Pre-Great Recession Pre-Coronavirus Crisis

• S&P's national home price index value at the peak was $184,614 (Q3 2006).

• S&P's national home price index value is currently at $212,594.

Pre-Great Recession Pre-Coronavirus Crisis

• Household debt was $12.68 trillion at peak (Q3 2008).

•Mortgage debt at its peak reached $14.6 trillion in (Q3 2008).

• The percentage of household debt service to disposable income was 13.21% at peak (Q4 2007).

• Household debt is higher, at $14.5 trillion (Q4 2019).

• Mortgage debt has exceeded pre-Great Recession peak at $15.8 trillion in (Q4 2019).

• The percentage of household debt service to disposable income is 9.69% (Q4 2019).

Pre-Great Recession Pre-Coronavirus Crisis

• Total Federal debt was $9.22 billion (Q4 2007).

• The debt-to-gross domestic product ratio was 62.86% at the end of 2007.

• Debt to equity (shows how much corporate leverage is being used) was 66.997% in 2007.

• Total Federal debt is $22.7 trillion.

• The most recent debt-to-gross domestic product ratio is 105.46%.

• Debt to equity (shows how much corporate leverage is being used) is much higher, at 84.175%.

Pre-Great Recession Pre-Coronavirus Crisis

• The minimum credit score for a subprime loan in 2007 was 660.

• Subprime loans made up 28% of all mortgage originations in 2007.

• The minimum credit score for a nonprime loan today is 620.

• Nonprime loans made up 17% of all mortgage originations in 2019, far less than pre-Great Recession rates.

Pre-Great Recession Pre-Coronavirus Crisis

• Highly leveraged corporate debt was around 15% at its peak in 2006.

• The bond market saw an inverted yield curve in 2006, often seen as an indicator of a recession.

• Highly leveraged corporate debt is higher, nearly 20% more than it was at the peak of 2006.

• The bond market saw an inverted yield curve in August 2019, often seen as an indicator of a recession.

• There are $15 trillion in negative-yielding bonds as of September 2019.

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